BUCKS ANALYTICS REPORT: Week 15 (01/23/19)

 
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TIGER ANALYTICS PREVIEW

It’s week 15 of the 2018-2019 NBA season and oooooooooh boy have we seen some surprises! Your own Milwaukee Bucks have shocked the world posting a historic season of a lifetime and could be arguably the greatest Bucks team every assembled (a podcast on this debate is coming soon!). Meanwhile the Golden State Warriors have been banged up for a good portion of the season thus far and have ultimately disappointed. Regardless, the anticipated super team for the ages is fully strength now with Boogie Cousins back in the lineup and we are about to see if they are going to be what we think they will be. Regardless, the top 5 teams in the East have exceeded expectations while it appears that there is only one elite team in the West and then a lot of solid teams.

This has become possibly the most fascinating NBA season in a long long time. Regardless of what most NBA spectators and analysts perceive that Golden State is going to blitz the league now that they are at full strength bolstering 5 all-stars, they have a real obstacle in their way and it’s yours truly: the good ol’ classic Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have become an advanced analytics juggernaught thanks to coach Mike Budenholzer and a plethortha of new acquisitions and draft picks over achieving.

There are a few teams in the East that actually may give the Warriors some fits in the NBA Finals this season but this first ever Bucks Analytics Report below will make you realize that your Milwaukee Bucks are having a season of a lifetime and are the biggest kryptonite to the incredible super team assembled this summer. The Bucks rank elite in the most important statistical categories while sacrificing statistically in areas that are not as significant to team winning basketball. This is a robust weekly data report on the Milwaukee Bucks consolidating all of the most significant NBA analytics from all the major NBA sites! I hope you enjoy this weekly post! It’s super hardcore and it gives you a one-stop shop for your Bucks analytics!

 
 

 

Bucks season record OVERVIEW (referenced from www.nba.com)

Check out the Bucks basic regular season record stats below.

 

W

34


L

12



GB

0.5


WIN %

.739 / Rank 1



PTS/GM

117.6 / Rank 2


+/-

10.0 / Rank 1



HOME

21-4


AWAY

13-8



DIVISION

8-1


CONFERENCE

22-7



STREAK

W 5


LAST 10

8-2


 

Glossary

W = Win

L = Loss

GB = Games Behind

WIN % = Win Percentage

PTS/GM = Points Per Game

+/- = Plus Minus

 

 

BUCKS BASIC STATS (referenced from www.nba.com)

Below you will see the Bucks season long traditional stats through the current week.

 

FGM / Rank

43.5 / Rank 3


FGA / Rank

90.4 / Rank 7


FG% / Rank

48.1 / Rank 4



3PM / Rank

13.3 / Rank 2


3PA / Rank

38.0 / Rank 2


3P% / Rank

35.1 / Rank 18



FTM / Rank

17.3 / Rank 18


FTA / Rank

22.6 / Rank 18


FT% / Rank

76.7 / Rank 17



OREB / Rank

9.1 / Rank 26


DREB / Rank

39.9 / Rank 1


REB / Rank

49.1 / Rank 1



AST / Rank

26.5 / Rank 5


STL / Rank

7.7 / Rank 16


BLK / Rank

6.0 / Rank 2



TOV / Rank

14.5 / Rank 18


PF / Rank

20.5 / Rank 8


PFD / Rank

20.4 / Rank 22


 

Glossary

FGM = Field Goals Made

FGA = Field Goals Attempted

FG% = Field Goal %

3PM = 3 Points Made

3PA = 3 Points Attempted

3P% = 3 Point %

FTM = Free Threes Made

FTA = Free Throws Attempted

FT% = Free Throw %

 

OREB = Offensive Rebounds

DREB = Defensive Rebounds

REB = Total Rebounds

AST = Assists

TOV = Turnovers

STL = Steals

BLK = Blocks

PF = Personal Fouls

PFD = Personal Fouls Defended

 

 

Bucks team efficiency metrics (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The chart below will show you the Bucks advanced team efficiency stats. These metrics show you expected wins efficiency as well as their current efficiency differential.

 

DIFF

-10.1 / Rank 1



Exp W82

64.2



Exp W

36.0



Win Diff

-2.0 / Rank 26


 

Glossary

DIFF = Efficiency Differential

(Points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed minus 100 posessions)

Exp W82 = Expected Wins - 82

(How many games in an 82 game season would we normally

expect a team with this efficiency differential to win?

 

Exp W = Expected Wins

(How many games - given how many the team has played - would we normally expect a team with this efficiency differential to win?)

Win Diff = Win Differential

(What’s the difference between the number of games the team has won and what would be expected based on their efficiency differential?)

 

 

BUCKS FOUR FACTORS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

Below are the Bucks four factors. NBA four factors are defined by the following: score efficiently, protect the basketball on offense, grab as many rebounds as possible, and get to the foul line as often as possible. Simplified: score, protect, crash, attack. Each of these elements are closely related to the termination of a possession for a team. There are other options such as dead ball rebounds, end of period, and specialized fouling situations. These are few and far between and rarely impact possession data over the course of a season.

 

PTS/POSS

114.9 / Rank 2 (OFF)

104.8/ Rank 4 (DEF)


EFG%

55.8 / Rank 2 (OFF)

50.7 / Rank 3 (DEF)


TOV%

13.9 / Rank 10 (OFF)

13.8 / Rank 19 (DEF)



OREB%

24.2 / Rank 24 (OFF)

22.4 / Rank 1 (DEF)


FT RATE

19.5 / Rank 19 (OFF)

17.0 / Rank 1 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/POSS = Points Per Possession

EFG% = Effective Field Goal %

TOV% = Turnover %

OREB% = Offensive Rebound %

FT RATE = Free Throw Rate

 

 

BUCKS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (referenced from www.ESPN.COM)

This chart shows ESPN’s RPI (relative percent idenx) chart which shows strength of schedule, points forced/against, and expected win metrics. You can find the official chart on ESPN right here: ESPN RPI CHART.

 

SOS

.491 / Rank 22



RPI

.553 / Rank 2



PF

5,409 / Rank 7



PA*

4,949 / Rank 26



EWL

37-9 / Rank 1



EWP

.813 / Rank 1


 

Glossary

SOS = Strength Of Schedule

RPI = Relative Percent Index

PF = Points Forced

*PA = Points Against (Lower Is Better)

EWL = Expected Win-Loss

EWP = Expected Win Percentage

 

 

BUCKS advanced metrics (referenced from www.nba.COM)

The chart below cited from NBA.com shows advanced team macro stats for the Bucks. These metrics are many of the most potent NBA team stats we have available to us. The offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating stats are are the best indicators of the Milwaukee Bucks overall team strength level.

 

OFFRTG / Rank

111.3 / Rank 3


DEFRTG / Rank

103.8 / Rank 1


NETRTG / Rank

9.7 / Rank 1



OREB% / Rank

27.0 / Rank 24


DREB% / Rank

76.1 / Rank 2


REB% / Rank

51.9 / Rank 3



AST % / Rank

61.0 / Rank 11


AST/TO / Rank

1.83 / Rank 10


AST RATIO / Rank

18.6 / Rank 5



EFG% / RANK

55.4 / Rank 2


TS% / Rank

58.6 / Rank 2


TOV% / Rank

14..0 / Rank 14


PACE / Rank

100.63 / Rank 5


PIE / Rank

55.9 / Rank 1


 

Glossary

OFFRTG = Offensive Rating

DEFRTG = Defensive Rating

NETRTG = Net Rating

AST% = Assist %

AST/TO = Assist Turnover Ratio

AST RATIO = Assist Ratio

 

OREB% = Offensive Rebound %

DREB% = Defensive Rebound %

REB% = Rebound %

TS% = True Shooting %

EFG% = Effective Field Goal %

TOV% = Turnover %

 

PACE = Game Pace

PIE = Player Impact Estimate

 

 

BUCKS SHOOTING LOCATION METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The Bucks shooting location metrics below show shot location stats for frequency (shot attempts) and FG% (efficiciency).

 

FREQUENCY

(OFFENSE)


RIM

41.4% / Rank 3


SHORT MID

12.9% / Rank 30


LONG MID

7.2% / Rank 29


ALL MID

20.1% / Rank 29


CORNER THREE

8.5% / Rank 6


NON CORNER

30.0% / Rank 2


ALL THREE

38.5% / Rank 2


FG%

(OFFENSE)


RIM

68.0% / Rank 1


SHORT MID

36.7% / Rank 25


LONG MID

38.6% / Rank 23


ALL MID

37.4% / Rank 25


CORNER THREE

39.0% / Rank 11


NON CORNER

34.5% / Rank 18


ALL THREE

35.5% / Rank 19


FREQUENCY

(DEFENSE)


RIM

29.3% / Rank 1


SHORT MID

19.1% / Rank 18


LONG MID

15.3% / Rank 29


ALL MID

34.4% / Rank 26


CORNER THREE

7.7% / Rank 16


NON CORNER

28.7% / Rank 30


ALL THREE

36.4% / Rank 30


FG%

(DEFENSE)


RIM

56.3% / Rank 1


SHORT MID

40.3% / Rank 18


LONG MID

42.2% / Rank 25


ALL MID

41.2% / Rank 22


CORNER THREE

39.3% / Rank 21


NON CORNER

36.4% / Rank 24


ALL THREE

37.0% / Rank 22


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS SHOOTING situation METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

The following stat chart shows Bucks shooting statistics for the two core shooting situations: catch & shoot and pull-up shooting.

 

CATCH & SHOOT


PTS

31.1% / Rank 3


FGM

10.6% / Rank 4


FGA

29.5% / Rank 3


FG%

35.9% / Rank 24


3PM

10.0% / Rank 1


3PA

28.0% / Rank 1


3P%

35.6% / Rank 2


EFG%

52.8% / Rank 14


PULLUP SHOOTING


PTS

17.0% / Rank 26


FGM

6.9% / Rank 29


FGA

19.4% / Rank 28


FG%

35.5% / Rank 26


3PM

3.3% / Rank 7


3PA

9.6% / Rank 6


3P%

33.9% / Rank 10


EFG%

43.8% / Rank 11


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS OVERALL scoring situation EFFICIENCY METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

This Bucks stat chart shows points per game and FG% for the six core scoring situations including: drives points, pull-up points, post points, catch & shoot points, paint touch points, and elbow touch points.

 

DRIVE PTS

29.6% / Rank 2


PULL UP PTS

17.0% / Rank 17


POST TOUCH PTS

4.2% / Rank 23



DRIVE FG%

55.5% / Rank 1


PULL UP FG%

35.4% / Rank 27


POST TOUCH FG%

54.3% / Rank 1



CATCH & SHOOT PTS

31.6% / Rank 4


PAINT TOUCH PTS

18.4% / Rank 26


ELBOW TOUCH PTS

5.2% / Rank 27



CATCH & SHOOT FG%

35.9% / Rank 23


PAINT TOUCH FG%

64.0% / Rank 10


ELBOW TOUCH FG%

62.2% / Rank 2


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS TRANSITION METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The stats below show Bucks transition play metrics for points/possession, transition play frequency, and points/play.

 

PTS+/POSS

3.6 / Rank 6 (OFF)

1.5 / Rank 2 (DEF)


FREQ

18.4% / Rank 4 (OFF)

14.3 %/ Rank 7 (DEF)


PTS/PLAY

125.6 / Rank 6 (OFF)

114.1 / Rank 1 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/PLAY = How many points did the team score per 100 transition plays? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws).

FREQ = What percent of possessions started with a transition play?

PTS+/POSS = How many points per 100 possessions did the team add through transition play?

 

 

BUCKS HALFCOURT METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The chart above shows Bucks transition play metrics with the chart below showing halfcourt play metrics highlighting points/play, offensive rebounding %, and % of plays.

 

PTS/PLAY

100.2 / Rank 2 (OFF)

91.5 / Rank 7 (DEF)


OREB%

24.8% / Rank 23 (OFF)

22.1% / Rank 1 (DEF)


% OF PLAYS

78.7% / Rank 7 (OFF)

81.6% / Rank 4 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/PLAY = How many points did the team score per 100 halfcourt plays? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws).

OREB% = How many of the team’s missed field goals in the halfcourt did they rebound?

% OF PLAYS = What percent of all of a team’s plays came in the halfcourt (i.e how often did they play against a set defense)?

 

 

BUCKS putback METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

Finally, to finish off this trio of stat charts we have Bucks putback metrics. Putback plays are any events that happen after an offensive rebound. The metrics below include points/miss, plays/miss, pts/play.

 

PTS/MISS

15.4 / Rank 27 (OFF)

14.1 / Rank 1 (DEF)


PLAYS/MISS

14.8 / Rank 26 (OFF)

13.5 / Rank 1 (DEF)


PTS/PLAY

101.9 / Rank 24 (OFF)

102.2 / Rank 6 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/MISS = How many putback points did the team score per 100 missed field goals/reboundable free throws?

PLAYS/MISS = How many putback plays did the team generate per 100 missed field goals/reboundable free throws? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws)?

PTS/PLAY = How many points did the team score per 100 putback plays? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws).

 

 

BUCKS SCORING scenario METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

This Bucks stat chart shows points scored in specific scoring scenarios for offense and defense including points scored off of turnovers, second chance points, fast break points, and points in the paints.

 

PTS OFF TO

17.7 / Rank 10


OPP PTS OFF TO

14.3 / Rank 1



2ND PTS

11.8 / Rank 27


OPP 2ND PTS

10.9 / Rank 2



FBPS

17.2 / Rank 6


OPP FBPS

9.7 / Rank 1



PITP

54.4 / Rank 3


OPP PITP

40.0 / Rank 1


 

Glossary

PTS OFF TO = Points off turnover.

OPP PTS OFF TO = Opponent points off turnover.

2ND PTS = Second chance points.

OPP 2ND PTS = Opponent second chance points.

FBPS = Fast break points.

OPP FBPS = Opponent fast break points.

PITP = Points in the paint.

OPP PITP = Opponent points in the paint.

 

 

BUCKS PASSING & CREATING METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

Below you will discover all of the Bucks core passing & creation metrics. This chart covers a lot of ground in terms of how the Bucks pass the ball and create plays!

 

PASSES MADE

287.9 / Rank 25


PASSES RECEIVED

287.9 / Rank 25


AST

26.5 / Rank 5



SECONDARY AST

2.9 / Rank 17


POTENTIAL AST

47.2 / Rank 7


AST PTS CREATED

66.0 / Rank 4



AST ADJ

30.1 / Rank 8


AST TO PASS %

9.2 / Rank 3


AST TO PASS% ADJ

10.5 / Rank 3


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS REBOUNDING METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

This is purely a Bucks rebounding stat chart. Total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and defensive rebounds are recorded through a variety of metrics.

 

ALL REBOUNDS

49.1 / Rank 1


CONTESTED REB

14.3 / Rank 22


CONTESTED REB%

29.2 / Rank 23


REB CHANCES

85.7 / Rank 7


REB CHANCE %

57.2 / Rank 2


DEFERRED REB CHANCES

6.3 / Rank 8


ADJUSTED REB CHANCE %

61.8 / Rank 2


AVG REB DISTANCE

74.2 / Rank 1



OFF REBOUNDS

9.1 / Rank 28


CONTESTED OREB

5.6 / Rank 26


CONTESTED OREB%

61.7 / Rank 11


OREB CHANCES

23.7 / Rank 27


OREB CHANCE %

38.6 / Rank 25


DEFERRED OREB CHANCES

0.6 / Rank 30


ADJUSTED REB CHANCE %

39.7 / Rank 26


AVG OREB DISTANCE

45.7 / Rank 23



DEF REBOUNDS

39.9 / Rank 1


CONTESTED DREB

8.7 / Rank 11


CONTESTED DREB%

21.7 / Rank 32


DREB CHANCES

64.6 / Rank 1


DREB CHANCE %

61.9 / Rank 2


DEFERRED DREB CHANCES

5.7 / Rank 4


ADJUSTED DREB CHANCE %

67.8 / Rank 2


AVG DREB DISTANCE

69.8 / Rank 1


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS HUSTLE METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

The metrics below are really interesting because they you all of the gritty hustle stats for the Bucks that never get talked about! NBA players who score well in advanced stats like “real plus minus” often post great hustle metrics!

 

SCREEN ASSISTS

7.3 / Rank 26


SCREEN ASSISTS PTS

17.2 / Rank 26


DEFLECTIONS

13.4 / Rank 16


CONTESTED 2PT SHOTS

45.4 / Rank 1


CONTESTED 3PT SHOTS

29.5 / Rank 1


CONTESTED SHOTS

74.9 / Rank 1



OFF LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED

4.1 / Rank 9


DEF LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED

4.6 / Rank 25


LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED

8.7 / Rank 20


% LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED OFF

47.4 / Rank 8


% LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED DEF

52.6 / Rank 25


CHARGES DRAWN

0.63 / Rank 12


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BOX OUT METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

Finally, to conclude on this Bucks Analytics Report we feature the most unglamorous metric possibly in NBA analytics: the “box out”. Sometimes the most impressive stats in sports are actually the grittiest. The boxout metrics ultimately correlate with rebounding stastistics. Depending on a team’s rebounding philosophy box outs can have a heavy correlation unless the team fires a ton of three point shots resulting in a potential plethora of rebounding opportunities for perimeter players since these rebounding situations tend to happen further away from the rim.

 

BOX OUTS

27.6 / Rank 10



OFF BOX OUTS

2.7 / Rank 29



DEF BOX OUTS

24.9 / Rank 8


% BOX OUTS OFF

9.7 / Rank 31


% BOX OUTS DEF

90.3 / Rank 2


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 
 

TIGER’S FINAL TAKE

The 2018-2019 season is just over the halfway mark and the Milwaukee Bucks are having one of the most special seasons in franchise history. It’s the year of the Forum and the fan base is more engaged then ever. The Bucks are truly an elite NBA team statistically score better than even the might Golden State Warriors. The Bucks at this point seem destined to reach the NBA Finals this season and is it a really possibility that they could and will win the whole damn thing? YES. And I truly think they will! The Bucks don’t get talked about enough in national sports media and that’s fine. Let our Bucks be the silent assassins and humiliate the Warriors in the finals as a truly underrated underdog of a lifetime. If you want to place a bet on the 2019 NBA Finals, bet on the Bucks. They’re for real.

 

TIGER

 
 
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