BUCKS ANALYTICS REPORT: Week 19 (02/19/19)

 
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TIGER ANALYTICS PREVIEW

The NBA All-Star weekend has just passed us by and it’s time to get back to basketball that actually matters! It’s also time to get back to Bucks analytics! The Bucks impressively are still rocking the #1 defense in the league while creeping up on the Nuggets for the #3 offense in the league. With the recent trade for Nikola Mirotic can expect the Bucks offense to ignite to another level. Milwaukee remains the 2nd highest volume 3pt shooting team in the NBA behind the Houston Rockets but their efficiency could use some improvement currently ranking 18th in the league in %. Fortunately though the Bucks are primed to finish the season very strong from behind the arc as Nikola Mirotic is a major addition as an outside shooter but also just his fit in the Bucks offense. The Bucks already have phenomenal floor spacing and it’s only going to get better with Mirotic on the roster. I expect the Bucks offense to explode in the final 3rd of this season and quite honestly they could become completely unstoppable (they basically are pretty much already!). Adding Mirotic is a complete game changer and we may see some more drastic changes in the Bucks weekly analytics going forward!

 
 
 

Bucks season record OVERVIEW (referenced from www.nba.com)

Check out the Bucks basic regular season record stats below.

 

W

43


L

14



GB

-


WIN %

.754 / Rank 1



PTS/GM

116.9 / Rank 2


+/-

9.8 / Rank 1



HOME

23-5


AWAY

20-9



DIVISION

11-1


CONFERENCE

30-8



STREAK

W 2


LAST 10

8-2


 

Glossary

W = Win

L = Loss

GB = Games Behind

WIN % = Win Percentage

PTS/GM = Points Per Game

+/- = Plus Minus

 

 

BUCKS BASIC STATS (referenced from www.nba.com)

Below you will see the Bucks season long traditional stats through the current week.

 

FGM / Rank

43..3 / Rank 3


FGA / Rank

90.2 / Rank 7


FG% / Rank

48.0% / Rank 2



3PM / Rank

13.1 / Rank 3


3PA / Rank

37.4 / Rank 2


3P% / Rank

34.9% / Rank 18



FTM / Rank

17.3 / Rank 19


FTA / Rank

22.5 / Rank 18


FT% / Rank

76.9% / Rank 16



OREB / Rank

9.0 / Rank 27


DREB / Rank

39.8 / Rank 1


REB / Rank

48.8 / Rank 1



AST / Rank

26.2 / Rank 7


STL / Rank

7.8 / Rank 13


BLK / Rank

5.9 / Rank 2



TOV / Rank

14.2 / Rank 18


PF / Rank

20.0 / Rank 6


PFD / Rank

20.2 / Rank 23


 

Glossary

FGM = Field Goals Made

FGA = Field Goals Attempted

FG% = Field Goal %

3PM = 3 Points Made

3PA = 3 Points Attempted

3P% = 3 Point %

FTM = Free Threes Made

FTA = Free Throws Attempted

FT% = Free Throw %

 

OREB = Offensive Rebounds

DREB = Defensive Rebounds

REB = Total Rebounds

AST = Assists

TOV = Turnovers

STL = Steals

BLK = Blocks

PF = Personal Fouls

PFD = Personal Fouls Defended

 

 

Bucks team efficiency metrics (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The chart below will show you the Bucks advanced team efficiency stats. These metrics show you expected wins efficiency as well as their current efficiency differential.

 

DIFF

+10.1 / Rank 1



Exp W82

64.4



Exp W

44.8



Win Diff

-1.8 / Rank 24


 

Glossary

DIFF = Efficiency Differential

(Points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed minus 100 posessions)

Exp W82 = Expected Wins - 82

(How many games in an 82 game season would we normally

expect a team with this efficiency differential to win?

 

Exp W = Expected Wins

(How many games - given how many the team has played - would we normally expect a team with this efficiency differential to win?)

Win Diff = Win Differential

(What’s the difference between the number of games the team has won and what would be expected based on their efficiency differential?)

 

 

BUCKS FOUR FACTORS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

Below are the Bucks four factors. NBA four factors are defined by the following: score efficiently, protect the basketball on offense, grab as many rebounds as possible, and get to the foul line as often as possible. Simplified: score, protect, crash, attack. Each of these elements are closely related to the termination of a possession for a team. There are other options such as dead ball rebounds, end of period, and specialized fouling situations. These are few and far between and rarely impact possession data over the course of a season.

 

PTS/POSS

114.6 / Rank 2 (OFF)

104.5/ Rank 1 (DEF)


EFG%

55.7 / Rank 2 (OFF)

50.4 / Rank 1 (DEF)


TOV%

13.7 / Rank 9 (OFF)

13.9 / Rank 16 (DEF)



OREB%

23.7 / Rank 25 (OFF)

22.6 / Rank 2 (DEF)


FT RATE

19.5 / Rank 19 (OFF)

176.7 / Rank 1 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/POSS = Points Per Possession

EFG% = Effective Field Goal %

TOV% = Turnover %

OREB% = Offensive Rebound %

FT RATE = Free Throw Rate

 

 

BUCKS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (referenced from www.ESPN.COM)

This chart shows ESPN’s RPI (relative percent idenx) chart which shows strength of schedule, points forced/against, and expected win metrics. You can find the official chart on ESPN right here: ESPN RPI CHART.

 

SOS

.494 / Rank 22



RPI

.559 / Rank 1 (Tied)



PF

6,664 / Rank 6



PA

6,107 / Rank 6



EWL

46-11 / Rank 1



EWP

.808 / Rank 1


 

Glossary

SOS = Strength Of Schedule

RPI = Relative Percent Index

PF = Points Forced

PA = Points Against

EWL = Expected Win-Loss

EWP = Expected Win Percentage

 

 

BUCKS advanced metrics (referenced from www.nba.COM)

The chart below cited from NBA.com shows advanced team macro stats for the Bucks. These metrics are many of the most potent NBA team stats we have available to us. The offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating stats are are the best indicators of the Milwaukee Bucks overall team strength level.

 

OFFRTG / Rank

113.0 / Rank 4


DEFRTG / Rank

103.5 / Rank 1


NETRTG / Rank

9..6 / Rank 1



OREB% / Rank

24.9 / Rank 27


DREB% / Rank

75.8 / Rank 2


REB% / Rank

51.6 / Rank 4



AST % / Rank

60.5 / Rank 13


AST/TO / Rank

1.84 / Rank 11


AST RATIO / Rank

18.5 / Rank 8



EFG% / RANK

55.2 / Rank 2


TS% / Rank

58.4 / Rank 2


TOV% / Rank

13.8 / Rank 13


PACE / Rank

103.10 / Rank 5


PIE / Rank

55.8 / Rank 1


 

Glossary

OFFRTG = Offensive Rating

DEFRTG = Defensive Rating

NETRTG = Net Rating

AST% = Assist %

AST/TO = Assist Turnover Ratio

AST RATIO = Assist Ratio

 

OREB% = Offensive Rebound %

DREB% = Defensive Rebound %

REB% = Rebound %

TS% = True Shooting %

EFG% = Effective Field Goal %

TOV% = Turnover %

 

PACE = Game Pace

PIE = Player Impact Estimate

 

 

BUCKS SHOOTING LOCATION METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The Bucks shooting location metrics below show shot location stats for frequency (shot attempts) and FG% (efficiciency).

 

FREQUENCY

(OFFENSE)


RIM

42.3% / Rank 2


SHORT MID

12.7% / Rank 30


LONG MID

7.1% / Rank 29


ALL MID

19.8% / Rank 29


CORNER THREE

8.3% / Rank 8


NON CORNER

29.6% / Rank 3


ALL THREE

38.0% / Rank 2


FG%

(OFFENSE)


RIM

67.2% / Rank 3


SHORT MID

37.9% / Rank 21


LONG MID

38.5% / Rank 24


ALL MID

38.1% / Rank 24


CORNER THREE

38.8% / Rank 12


NON CORNER

34.3% / Rank 20


ALL THREE

35.3% / Rank 20


FREQUENCY

(DEFENSE)


RIM

29.9% / Rank 1


SHORT MID

18.9% / Rank 18


LONG MID

15.0% / Rank 29


ALL MID

34.0% / Rank 25


CORNER THREE

7.6% / Rank 13


NON CORNER

28.6% / Rank 30


ALL THREE

36.1% / Rank 30


FG%

(DEFENSE)


RIM

56.7% / Rank 1


SHORT MID

39.6% / Rank 11


LONG MID

42.0% / Rank 24


ALL MID

40.7% / Rank 18


CORNER THREE

42.2% / Rank 28


NON CORNER

35.1% / Rank 13


ALL THREE

36.6% / Rank 19


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS SHOOTING situation METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

The following stat chart shows Bucks shooting statistics for the two core shooting situations: catch & shoot and pull-up shooting.

 

CATCH & SHOOT


PTS

30.2% / Rank 4


FGM

10.2% / Rank 6


FGA

28.9% / Rank 4


FG%

35.4% / Rank 27


3PM

9.7% / Rank 2


3PA

27.5% / Rank 1


3P%

35.2% / Rank 27


EFG%

52.2% / Rank 24


PULLUP SHOOTING


PTS

17.0% / Rank 26


FGM

6.9% / Rank 29


FGA

19.0% / Rank 28


FG%

36.1% / Rank 26


3PM

3.2% / Rank 7


3PA

9.4% / Rank 6


3P%

34.5% / Rank 10


EFG%

44.6% / Rank 11


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS OVERALL scoring situation EFFICIENCY METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

This Bucks stat chart shows points per game and FG% for the six core scoring situations including: drives points, pull-up points, post points, catch & shoot points, paint touch points, and elbow touch points.

 

DRIVE PTS

30.1 / Rank 2


PULL UP PTS

17.0 / Rank 28


POST TOUCH PTS

4.4 / Rank 23



DRIVE FG%

55.9% / Rank 1


PULL UP FG%

36.0% / Rank 21


POST TOUCH FG%

54.0% / Rank 2



CATCH & SHOOT PTS

30.8 / Rank 5


PAINT TOUCH PTS

18.6 / Rank 22


ELBOW TOUCH PTS

5.3 / Rank 27



CATCH & SHOOT FG%

35.3% / Rank 28


PAINT TOUCH FG%

64.0% / Rank 10


ELBOW TOUCH FG%

63.1% / Rank 2


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS TRANSITION METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The stats below show Bucks transition play metrics for points/possession, transition play frequency, and points/play.

 

PTS+/POSS

3.7 / Rank 5 (OFF)

1.5 / Rank 2 (DEF)


FREQ

18.4% / Rank 4 (OFF)

14.5% / Rank 10 (DEF)


PTS/PLAY

126.0 / Rank 9 (OFF)

114.8 / Rank 2 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/PLAY = How many points did the team score per 100 transition plays? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws).

FREQ = What percent of possessions started with a transition play?

PTS+/POSS = How many points per 100 possessions did the team add through transition play?

 

 

BUCKS HALFCOURT METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

The chart above shows Bucks transition play metrics with the chart below showing halfcourt play metrics highlighting points/play, offensive rebounding %, and % of plays.

 

PTS/PLAY

100.4 / Rank 2 (OFF)

90.9 / Rank 3 (DEF)


OREB%

24.1% / Rank 25 (OFF)

22.4% / Rank 1 (DEF)


% OF PLAYS

78.6% / Rank 7 (OFF)

81.3% / Rank 4 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/PLAY = How many points did the team score per 100 halfcourt plays? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws).

OREB% = How many of the team’s missed field goals in the halfcourt did they rebound?

% OF PLAYS = What percent of all of a team’s plays came in the halfcourt (i.e how often did they play against a set defense)?

 

 

BUCKS putback METRICS (Referenced From www.cleaningtheglass.com)

Finally, to finish off this trio of stat charts we have Bucks putback metrics. Putback plays are any events that happen after an offensive rebound. The metrics below include points/miss, plays/miss, pts/play.

 

PTS/MISS

14.9 / Rank 28 (OFF)

14.3 / Rank 1 (DEF)


PLAYS/MISS

14.6 / Rank 28 (OFF)

13.6 / Rank 1 (DEF)


PTS/PLAY

100.0 / Rank 28 (OFF)

103.0 / Rank 5 (DEF)


 

Glossary

PTS/MISS = How many putback points did the team score per 100 missed field goals/reboundable free throws?

PLAYS/MISS = How many putback plays did the team generate per 100 missed field goals/reboundable free throws? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws)?

PTS/PLAY = How many points did the team score per 100 putback plays? (A play is anything that results in a shot, turnover, or free throws).

 

 

BUCKS SCORING scenario METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

This Bucks stat chart shows points scored in specific scoring scenarios for offense and defense including points scored off of turnovers, second chance points, fast break points, and points in the paints.

 

PTS OFF TO

18.1 / Rank 16


OPP PTS OFF TO

14.6 / Rank 2



2ND PTS

11.2 / Rank 28


OPP 2ND PTS

11.3 / Rank 4



FBPS

17.3 / Rank 6


OPP FBPS

9.8 / Rank 1



PITP

54.6 / Rank 3


OPP PITP

40.7 / Rank 1


 

Glossary

PTS OFF TO = Points off turnover.

OPP PTS OFF TO = Opponent points off turnover.

2ND PTS = Second chance points.

OPP 2ND PTS = Opponent second chance points.

FBPS = Fast break points.

OPP FBPS = Opponent fast break points.

PITP = Points in the paint.

OPP PITP = Opponent points in the paint.

 

 

BUCKS PASSING & CREATING METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

Below you will discover all of the Bucks core passing & creation metrics. This chart covers a lot of ground in terms of how the Bucks pass the ball and create plays!

 

PASSES MADE

286.7 / Rank 26


PASSES RECEIVED

286.6 / Rank 26


AST

26.2 / Rank 7



SECONDARY AST

2.8 / Rank 17


POTENTIAL AST

46.6 / Rank 11


AST PTS CREATED

65.1 / Rank 6



AST ADJ

29.6 / Rank 9


AST TO PASS %

9.1 / Rank 4


AST TO PASS% ADJ

10.3 / Rank 7


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS REBOUNDING METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

This is purely a Bucks rebounding stat chart. Total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and defensive rebounds are recorded through a variety of metrics.

 

ALL REBOUNDS

48.8 / Rank 1


CONTESTED REB

14.4 / Rank 22


CONTESTED REB%

29.5 / Rank 23


REB CHANCES

85.2 / Rank 7


REB CHANCE %

57.3 / Rank 2


DEFERRED REB CHANCES

6.4 / Rank 8


ADJUSTED REB CHANCE %

61.9 / Rank 2



OFF REBOUNDS

9.0 / Rank 29


CONTESTED OREB

5.6 / Rank 27


CONTESTED OREB%

62.1 / Rank 11


OREB CHANCES

23.3 / Rank 27


OREB CHANCE %

38.7 / Rank 24


DEFERRED OREB CHANCES

0.7 / Rank 29


ADJUSTED REB CHANCE %

39.9 / Rank 25



DEF REBOUNDS

39.8 / Rank 1


CONTESTED DREB

8.8 / Rank 7


CONTESTED DREB%

22.1 / Rank 31


DREB CHANCES

64.3 / Rank 1


DREB CHANCE %

61.9 / Rank 2


DEFERRED DREB CHANCES

5.7 / Rank 4


ADJUSTED DREB CHANCE %

68.0 / Rank 2


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BUCKS HUSTLE METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

The metrics below are really interesting because they you all of the gritty hustle stats for the Bucks that never get talked about! NBA players who score well in advanced stats like “real plus minus” often post great hustle metrics!

 

SCREEN ASSISTS

6.8 / Rank 31


SCREEN ASSISTS PTS

15.8 / Rank 31


DEFLECTIONS

13.4 / Rank 14


CONTESTED 2PT SHOTS

45.1 / Rank 1


CONTESTED 3PT SHOTS

29.3 / Rank 1


CONTESTED SHOTS

74.4 / Rank 1



OFF LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED

4.1 / Rank 7


DEF LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED

4.5 / Rank 24


LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED

8.6 / Rank 20


% LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED OFF

47.9 / Rank 6


% LOOSE BALLS RECOVERED DEF

52.1 / Rank 27


CHARGES DRAWN

0.79 / Rank 2


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 

BOX OUT METRICS (referenced from www.nba.com)

Finally, to conclude on this Bucks Analytics Report we feature the most unglamorous metric possibly in NBA analytics: the “box out”. Sometimes the most impressive stats in sports are actually the grittiest. The boxout metrics ultimately correlate with rebounding stastistics. Depending on a team’s rebounding philosophy box outs can have a heavy correlation unless the team fires a ton of three point shots resulting in a potential plethora of rebounding opportunities for perimeter players since these rebounding situations tend to happen further away from the rim.

 

BOX OUTS

26.2 / Rank 17



OFF BOX OUTS

2.4 / Rank 30



DEF BOX OUTS

23.8/ Rank 9


% BOX OUTS OFF

9.0 / Rank 32


% BOX OUTS DEF

91.0/ Rank 1


 

*All Terms Above Self-Explainable*

 

 
 

TIGER’S FINAL TAKE

The Bucks have become the NBA’s advanced metric’s darling while most NBA analysis currently care more to ignore this. The Buck’s offense is about to take another leap while their defense has been down right suffocating. The only Knock thus far has been their perimeter defense even though it has actually improved fairly drastically since the beginning of the season. The Bucks contest more shots than any team in the league and it’s starting to impact their woes against defending the 3pt shot. It’s going to be fun to see how much of a difference Mirotic will make on this Bucks team as I expect it to be huge! Let’s see if the Bucks can steadily advance their way to the #3 rank on offense by season’s end and possibly even #2 right behind the Warriors. The Bucks have so much depth in defenders and a solid lead in defensive rating so I expect the Bucks to finish with the NBA’s best defensive rating. For a Bucks team that is statistically the most elite team in the NBA they are about to get even better. Enjoy the ride!

 

TIGER

 
 
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