BUCKS PREGAME REPORT: Golden State Warriors Vs. Milwaukee Bucks 12/07/18

 
 
 

tiger pregame preview

So the biggest game of the Milwaukee Buck’s regular season his finally here and the story line couldn’t be more exciting for the Bucks fan base as Milwaukee is the Vegas favorite by -1.5 and comes into the match up already with a blowout win over the Warriors weeks ago at their home court the Oracle. Unfortunately for the Warriors they are going to be without Draymond Green for a second straight match up with the Bucks. This is serious bad news bears for the Warriors because the Bucks are arguably the best team in the NBA currently when you balance, record, strength of schedule, basic stats, and advanced metrics and we already came to their house and whooped their ass! This is a completely different Bucks team as they are 4-0 against the top 4 other seeds in the East and 3-1 against the top 4 seeds in the West. Without Draymond, this Warriors team just doesn’t match up well against my Bucks. However, this is a major revenge game and expect the Warriors to be dropping napalm from the perimeter all fucking night. It’s going to be an EPIC game!. Let’s dive into the analysis…

 
 

 

MATCHUP DETAILS

Match Up: Warriors (17/9) Vs. Bucks (16/7)

Game Time: Friday, Dec. 7th 2018 > 8:30PM CT

Game Location: Fiserv Forum • Milwaukee, WI

TV Channels: FSWIS / NBCSBA / ESPN

Radio: 620 AM/103.3 FM WTMJ

Vegas Spread: Bucks -1.5

Vegas O/U: 238.5

Money Line: Bucks -125 / Warriors +105

 

 

tiger pregame analysis

Ok so let me point the most surprising stat that no Bucks fan or NBA analyst would have have predicted at this point of the season. It’s the Milwaukee Bucks #1 league NET RATING of 10.1 for offensive and defensive rankings! That’s right, you’re Milwaukee Bucks are currently THE MOST EFFICIENT BASKETBALL TEAM IN THE ENTIRE NBA! Really, it’s not even close either. The Toronto Raptors come in 2nd with a 7.7 score which is uhhh…which is 2.4 pts better which is actually a pretty respectful lead with this metric. The Bucks are currently the #1 ranked offense and #6 defense and have been top 5 (and even top 3) in both categories all season long. Meanwhile, good ol’ G.S. is surprisingly 5th overall in net rating, 2nd in offense, and shockingly 19th on defense! I mean yes we all know that Draymond has missed a bunch of games but really 19th on defense is pretty concerning if you ask me. When you look at the rest of their roster they still have tons of great or at least above average defenders. If we filter out everything else and only look at the analytics, the Bucks are a superior team over the Warriors currently and no one saw this coming (including myself)!

Now let’s recall that the Bucks completely embarrassed the Warriors previously at their home court and regardless of what the analytics say, this Warriors team is going to be lit on fire. The Bucks have an elite record against the best teams in the NBA and this is why I think the Bucks mentally ready for the challenge tonight. The Bucks barely have any flaws right now as they are elite in shooting, rebounding, and just play great team offense and defense. This Warriors team is mentally fragile right now however and any given night you can expect new drama to erupt from the locker room. Golden State has elite talent even with Draymond and Boogie off the floor but the egos and dislike among each other is a real thing and I am certain the most telling reason why they have underachieve thus far. Now don’t get me wrong, missing Draymond all these games is big time huge! However, the social conflict between Durant and Draymond when they are on the court together is continual fireworks to come. Team chemistry has become a completely overlooked aspect in evaluating sports teams (especially the NBA since the rosters are so small) and we are truly discovering how important it is and what kind of difference it make with NBA teams over the last few years. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best team chemistry right now in the league and it’s not even close once again! It’s just obvious! The Warriors can still drop bombs on NBA teams any night even with the conflicting team chemistry but I’m just not afraid of them right now and neither should you be as well!

The Bucks are in for a real shootout tonight with a motivated Warriors team for sure but remember that the whole city of Milwaukee has been eyeing out this game being the first ever meeting with the Warriors at the new Fiserv Forum. Expect the crowd to completely engaged and completely LIT ON FIRE. The Warriors will be facing an ultra motivated Bucks team as well and you know the Greak Freak is going to be possessed tonight. It’s going to be an insanely difficult weekend of games for the Bucks as we face Toronto on Sunday! Ouch! But it’s time to start “believing in the Bucks”. The Bucks are incredible this year and they are more than ready for an epic rematch with the Warriors tonight!

 

 

Key Matchup Factors

 

MILWAUKEE BUCKS


  • The Bucks have the defensive tools and system to shut down the Warriors once again. They are the #1 defensive rebounding team in the league against a Warriors team that lacks size down low and they are also #1 in contested shots with 74.5 per game! The next closest is the Toronto Raptors with 69.2 a game.

  • Eric Bledsoe a lethal match up for Stephen Curry and we saw it in the first match up against the Warriors when Bledshow just mulled him. He’s physical, way more athletic, and playing like a pitbull on defense this season!

  • If this matchup turns out to be a shootout well the Bucks have been doing that all season! They are 4th in pace while the Warriors are playing especially this season being ranked 18th. Also the Bucks and the Warriors are the top most efficient overall shooting teams in the NBA. The Bucks don’t have to be afraid of the Warriors shooting since the Warriors need to be equally afraid!

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo is having a great season… But. We can all agree we haven’t seen the best version of Giannis yet this season. This game is so huge and Giannis gets up for these big games as well as anyone in the league. I expect Giannis to go ballistic in this game and the Warriors really don’t have any answer for him without Draymond.

Golden State Warriors


  • The Warriors are well the Warriors and we all know what they are capable of. They’ve also been short handed regardless of the fact that they still are playing with 3 all stars. It’s the fact that Draymond Green may have the biggest impact on how the Warriors play and how successful they can be (especially on defense). The Bucks have to expect the Warriors best regardless that they are underachieving and missing a stud.

  • Golden State can go nuclear at any moment and I expect it to happen tonight. If Curry, Thompson, and Durant all have efficient shooting nights well there is a great chance they come out on top. The Bucks losses have mostly come from teams having amazing shooting nights which is actually a compliment to the Bucks since they have shown that this is what it takes to beat them. However, the Bucks can’t let it become a permanent trend either otherwise teams will exploit this permanently as well and who is better equipped to do that than a Steve Kerr coached Warriors team? The Bucks need to limit the fireballs from behind the arc just like they did last time if the Want to beat the Warriors!

  • A blowout loss at home is always as motivating as it gets so based on that fact alone the Bucks better be ready for a nail biter if not an offensive assault by the Warriors tonight!

 

 

Matchup Comparison (Basic Stats)

(Referenced By www.nba.com)

 

mILWAUKEE

Bucks


121.1

44.4

91.2

48.7

14.6

40.6

36.0

17.7

23.0

76.8

9.8

40.5

50.3

27.3

15.4

7.3

5.9

4.6

21.1

21.1

10.7

LEAGUE

Rank


1

1

6

3

1

2

9

18

19

15

20

1

1

2

2

20

7

4

11

20

1

BASIC

STATS


Points Scored

FG Made

FG Attempts

FG%

3PT Made

3PT Attempts

3P%

FT Made

FT Attempted

FT%

Offensive Rebound

Defensive Rebounds

Total Rebounds

Assists

Turnovers

Steals

Blocks

Blocks Attempted

Personal Fouls

Personal Fouls Drawn

Plus / Minus

LEAGUE

Rank


3

5

21

1

8

19

1

11

22

2

21

9

14

1

15

21

2

1

16

23

5

G.S.

WARRIORS


116.8

43.5

87.6

49.7

11.5

29.5

39.1

18.2

22.1

82.6

9.7

35.7

45.5

27.9

14.9

7.2

6.3

3.6

22.3

20.5

5.6

 

 

Matchup Comparison (Advanced Stats)

(Referenced By www.nba.com)

 

MILWAUKEE

BUCKS


115.1

105.0

10.1

61.4

1.77

18.8

26.0

76.7

52.7

14.6

56.7

59.7

104.25

56.2


LEAGUE

RANK


1

6

1

10

8

4

23

1

2

17

1

2

4

1

ADVANCED

STATS


Offensive Rating

Defensive Rating

Net Rating

Assist %

Assist/Turnover Ratio

Assist Ratio

Offensive Rebound %

Defensive Rebound %

Rebounds %

Turnover %

Effective Field Goal %

True Shooting %

Pace

Player Impact Estimate

*(PIE Is A Team & Player Metric)

LEAGUE

RANK


2

19

5

4

6

1

14

20

9

18

2

1

18

3

G.S.

WARRIORS


114.9

109.4

5.5

64.0

1.87

19.7

27.0

72.0

51.1

14.6

56.3

60.0

100.85

54.7

 

 

TIGER PREGAME PREDICTION

Ok so this match up can’t get more intriguing but at the end of the day the Milwaukee Bucks still have a major advantage with Draymond Green MIA. It’s huge! The Fiserv Forum is going to get rowdy tonight and that energy from the crowd is going to make a difference. I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden State comes out on fire and even beats them convincingly but I’m going with my Bucks the home favorite once again. The Bucks are too deep for the Warriors still and they can beat them at their own game and will dominate on the boards. If Lopez gets hot and if the Bucks shoot well tonight I think they’ll pull away with the win once again. The defense better not have an off night though if they are going to do it!

Final Verdict = (W) Bucks 127 @ (L) Warriors 120

TIGER’S Calling It…

“BUCKS BY 7.”

 

 
 

TIGERS FINAL TAKE

This is the biggest game of the bucks regular season. Not only that but if the Bucks win, the entire NBA world is going to explode! The Bucks are more than prepared and equipped to shock the Warriors again for the 2nd and final meeting this season. The NBA is finally realizing how good this Bucks team is and I think they’re going to light the NBA ON FIRE tonight. It’s going to be an epic rematch of a lifetime and you want to make sure you tune in! GO BUCKS! BUCKS IN THE FINALS, BUCKS IN 6!

 
 

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